Evidence Synthesis of Observational Studies in Environmental Health: Lessons Learned from a Systematic Review on Traffic-Related Air Pollution.

BACKGROUND: There is a long tradition in environmental health of using frameworks for evidence synthesis, such as those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for its Integrated Science Assessments and the International Agency for Research on Cancer Monographs. The framework, Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE), was developed for evidence synthesis in clinical medicine. The U.S. Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) elaborated an approach for evidence synthesis in environmental health building on GRADE. METHODS: We applied a modified OHAT approach and a broader "narrative" assessment to assess the level of confidence in a large systematic review on traffic-related air pollution and health outcomes. DISCUSSION: We discuss several challenges with the OHAT approach and its implementation and suggest improvements for synthesizing evidence from observational studies in environmental health. We consider the determination of confidence using a formal rating scheme of up- and downgrading of certain factors, the treatment of every factor as equally important, and the lower initial confidence rating of observational studies to be fundamental issues in the OHAT approach. We argue that some observational studies can offer high-confidence evidence in environmental health. We note that heterogeneity in magnitude of effect estimates should generally not weaken the confidence in the evidence, and consistency of associations across study designs, populations, and exposure assessment methods may strengthen confidence in the evidence. We mention that publication bias should be explored beyond statistical methods and is likely limited when large and collaborative studies comprise most of the evidence and when accrued over several decades. We propose to identify possible key biases, their most likely direction, and their potential impacts on the results. We think that the OHAT approach and other GRADE-type frameworks require substantial modification to align better with features of environmental health questions and the studies that address them. We emphasize that a broader, "narrative" evidence assessment based on the systematic review may complement a formal GRADE-type evaluation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11532.

Hypertension and Stroke as Mediators of Air Pollution Exposure and Incident Dementia.

Importance: Fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) has been consistently associated with cardiovascular disease, which, in turn, is associated with an increased risk of dementia. As such, vascular dysfunction might be a mechanism by which PM2.5 mediates dementia risk, yet few prior epidemiological studies have examined this potential mechanism. Objective: To investigate whether hypertension and stroke serve as mediators and modifiers of the association of PM2.5 with incident dementia. Design, Setting, and Participants: As part of the Environmental Predictors of Cognitive Health and Aging (EPOCH) Project, this cohort study used biennial survey data collected between 1998 and 2016 from respondents of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative, population-based, cohort in the US. Eligible participants were those over 50 years of age who were free of dementia at baseline and had complete exposure, mediator, outcome, and demographic data from the HRS. Data analysis was conducted from August to November 2022. Exposures: Exposure to PM2.5, calculated for the 10 years preceding each person's baseline examination according to residential histories and spatiotemporal models. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident dementia was identified using a validated algorithm based on cognitive testing and informant reports. The 4-way decomposition causal mediation analysis method was used to quantify the degree to which hypertension and stroke mediated or modified the association of PM2.5 with incident dementia after adjustment for individual-level and area-level covariates. Results: Among 27 857 participants (mean [SD] age at baseline, 61 [10] years; 15 747 female participants [56.5%]; 19 249 non-Hispanic White participants [69.1%]), 4105 (14.7%) developed dementia during the follow-up period (mean [SD], 10.2 [5.6] years). Among participants with dementia, 2204 (53.7%) had a history of hypertension at baseline and 386 (9.4%) received a diagnosis of hypertension during the follow up. A total of 378 participants (9.2%) had a history of stroke at baseline and 673 (16.4%) developed stroke over the follow-up period. The IQR of baseline PM2.5 concentrations was 10.9 to 14.9 µg/m3. In fully adjusted models, higher levels of PM2.5 (per IQR) were not associated with increased risk of incident dementia (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.11). Although there were positive associations of prevalent stroke (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.48 to 1.88) and hypertension (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.23) with incident dementia compared with those free of stroke and hypertension during follow-up, there was no statistically significant association of PM2.5 with stroke (odds ratio per IQR increment in PM2.5, 1.08; 95%CI, 0.91 to 1.29) and no evidence of an association of PM2.5 with hypertension (odds ratio per IQR increment in PM2.5, 0.99; 95%CI, 0.92 to 1.07). Concordantly, there was no evidence that hypertension or stroke acted as mediators or modifiers of the association of PM2.5 with incident dementia. Although the nonmediated interaction between PM2.5 and hypertension accounted for 39.2% of the total excess association (95% CI, -138.5% to 216.9%), the findings were not statistically significant. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that although hypertension may enhance the susceptibility of individuals to air pollution, hypertension and stroke do not significantly mediate or modify the association of PM2.5 with dementia, indicating the need to investigate other pathways and potential mediators of risk.

Associations between long-term aircraft noise exposure, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in US cohorts of female nurses.

There is limited research examining aircraft noise and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The objective of this study was to investigate associations of aircraft noise with CVD among two US cohorts, the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII). Methods: Between 1994 and 2014, we followed 57,306 NHS and 60,058 NHSII participants surrounding 90 airports. Aircraft noise was modeled above 44 A-weighted decibels (dB(A)) and linked to geocoded addresses. Based on exposure distributions, we dichotomized exposures at 50 dB(A) and tested sensitivity of this cut-point by analyzing aircraft noise as categories (<45, 45-49, 50-54, ≥55) and continuously. We fit cohort-specific Cox proportional hazards models to estimate relationships between time-varying day-night average sound level (DNL) and CVD incidence and CVD and all-cause mortality, adjusting for fixed and time-varying individual- and area-level covariates. Results were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Results: Over 20 years of follow-up, there were 4529 CVD cases and 14,930 deaths. Approximately 7% (n = 317) of CVD cases were exposed to DNL ≥50 dB(A). In pooled analyses comparing ≥50 with <50 dB(A), the adjusted hazard ratio for CVD incidence was 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.89, 1.12). The corresponding adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.09). Patterns were similar for CVD mortality in NHS yet underpowered. Conclusions: Among participants in the NHS and NHSII prospective cohorts who generally experience low exposure to aircraft noise, we did not find adverse associations of aircraft noise with CVD incidence, CVD mortality, or all-cause mortality.

Comparison of Particulate Air Pollution From Different Emission Sources and Incident Dementia in the US.

Importance: Emerging evidence indicates that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution may increase dementia risk in older adults. Although this evidence suggests opportunities for intervention, little is known about the relative importance of PM2.5 from different emission sources. Objective: To examine associations of long-term exposure of total and source-specific PM2.5 with incident dementia in older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Environmental Predictors of Cognitive Health and Aging study used biennial survey data from January 1, 1998, to December 31, 2016, for participants in the Health and Retirement Study, which is a nationally representative, population-based cohort study in the US. The present cohort study included all participants older than 50 years who were without dementia at baseline and had available exposure, outcome, and demographic data between 1998 and 2016 (N = 27 857). Analyses were performed from January 31 to May 1, 2022. Exposures: The 10-year mean total PM2.5 and PM2.5 from 9 emission sources at participant residences for each month during follow-up using spatiotemporal and chemical transport models. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was incident dementia as classified by a validated algorithm incorporating respondent-based cognitive testing and proxy respondent reports. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated for incident dementia per IQR of residential PM2.5 concentrations using time-varying, weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models with adjustment for the individual- and area-level risk factors. Results: Among 27 857 participants (mean [SD] age, 61 [10] years; 15 747 [56.5%] female), 4105 (15%) developed dementia during a mean (SD) follow-up of 10.2 [5.6] years. Higher concentrations of total PM2.5 were associated with greater rates of incident dementia (HR, 1.08 per IQR; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17). In single pollutant models, PM2.5 from all sources, except dust, were associated with increased rates of dementia, with the strongest associations for agriculture, traffic, coal combustion, and wildfires. After control for PM2.5 from all other sources and copollutants, only PM2.5 from agriculture (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27) and wildfires (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08) were robustly associated with greater rates of dementia. Conclusion and Relevance: In this cohort study, higher residential PM2.5 levels, especially from agriculture and wildfires, were associated with higher rates of incident dementia, providing further evidence supporting PM2.5 reduction as a population-based approach to promote healthy cognitive aging. These findings also indicate that intervening on key emission sources might have value, although more research is needed to confirm these findings.

Long-Term Exposure to Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Objectives: We report results of a systematic review on the health effects of long-term traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) and diabetes in the adult population. Methods: An expert Panel appointed by the Health Effects Institute conducted this systematic review. We searched the PubMed and LUDOK databases for epidemiological studies from 1980 to July 2019. TRAP was defined based on a comprehensive protocol. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Confidence assessments were based on a modified Office for Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) approach, complemented with a broader narrative synthesis. We extended our interpretation to include evidence published up to May 2022. Results: We considered 21 studies on diabetes. All meta-analytic estimates indicated higher diabetes risks with higher exposure. Exposure to NO2 was associated with higher diabetes prevalence (RR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02; 1.17 per 10 µg/m3), but less pronounced for diabetes incidence (RR 1.04; 95% CI: 0.96; 1.13 per 10 µg/m3). The overall confidence in the evidence was rated moderate, strengthened by the addition of 5 recently published studies. Conclusion: There was moderate evidence for an association of long-term TRAP exposure with diabetes.

Leveraging football accelerometer data to quantify associations between repetitive head impacts and chronic traumatic encephalopathy in males.

Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative tauopathy associated with repetitive head impacts (RHI), but the components of RHI exposure underlying this relationship are unclear. We create a position exposure matrix (PEM), composed of American football helmet sensor data, summarized from literature review by player position and level of play. Using this PEM, we estimate measures of lifetime RHI exposure for a separate cohort of 631 football playing brain donors. Separate models examine the relationship between CTE pathology and players' concussion count, athletic positions, years of football, and PEM-derived measures, including estimated cumulative head impacts, linear accelerations, and rotational accelerations. Only duration of play and PEM-derived measures are significantly associated with CTE pathology. Models incorporating cumulative linear or rotational acceleration have better model fit and are better predictors of CTE pathology than duration of play or cumulative head impacts alone. These findings implicate cumulative head impact intensity in CTE pathogenesis.

Identifying and describing trajectories of alcohol use frequency and binge drinking frequency among those aged 15-30 years in a national cohort of US adolescents: A group-based trajectory modeling approach.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Analyzing long-term trajectories of alcohol use has the potential to strengthen policy and intervention priorities and timing. We identified and described trajectories of alcohol use and binge drinking frequency from mid-adolescence to early adulthood and measured the association of the role of early drinking initiation with trajectory membership. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: This was a longitudinal cohort study conducted in the United States. The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 is a nationally representative cohort of youth aged 12-16 years at baseline. The analytic sample included individuals who participated in two or more annual interviews between ages 15 and 30 years (n = 8809). MEASUREMENTS: Participants self-reported the number of days in the past 30 days they: (1) drank alcohol and (2) binge drank (five or more drinks on one occasion). We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct trajectories from ages 15-30 years of past 30-day drinking and past 30-day binge drinking. Using multinomial logistic regression, we evaluated associations between early drinking initiation (≤ 14 years) and key demographics with trajectory membership. FINDINGS: We identified five past 30-day drinking groups: late-escalating (16.0%), moderate frequency (19.0%), high frequency (11.2%), low frequency (35.4%) and no/infrequent (18.4%). Early drinking initiation (versus later) was associated with higher odds of membership in the moderate [adjusted multinomial odds ratio (aMOR) = 4.88; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.00, 5.94] and high-frequency groups (aMOR = 4.68; 95% CI = 3.74, 5.86) than in the no/infrequent comparator trajectory. We identified five groups with distinct binge drinking frequency patterns: later escalating (9.9%), high frequency (3.9%), low frequency (28.7%), earlier onset (9.5%) and no/infrequent (48.0%). Early initiation was associated with increased odds of membership in earlier-onset and high-frequency groups compared with the no/infrequent group. For both outcomes, additional differences in probability of group membership were identified by gender, racial identity, parental factors (religiosity, high school completion) and household characteristics (household size, income, and region of residence). CONCLUSIONS: Youth in the United States appear to follow heterogeneous drinking and binge drinking trajectories from adolescence into adulthood. These may include higher-use trajectories as well as trajectories with different escalation timing (e.g. earlier versus later). Early initiation of drinking may increase risk of membership in higher- and earlier-use trajectory groups.

Longitudinal Changes in Blood Biomarkers of Clinical Alzheimer Disease in a Biracial Population Sample.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Recent studies suggest the utility of blood biomarkers in detecting changes in neurodegenerative disorders. The objective of our research was to test the hypothesis that the longitudinal changes in total tau (t-tau), neurofilament light chain (Nf-L), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) are associated with structural MRI and the development of clinical Alzheimer disease (AD) and cognitive decline. METHODS: Data came from a population-based sample with serum concentrations of t-tau, Nf-L, and GFAP and cognitive characteristics measured over 17 years. The inclusion criteria for this investigation were based on participants with blood samples, cognitive function testing, and clinical diagnosis for AD. The longitudinal changes in the serum biomarkers were examined using linear mixed models for log10-transformed concentrations. RESULTS: In 1,327 participants (60% Black participants and 60% women, the concentration of t-tau increased annually by 4.8% (95% CI = 4.0-5.6) and Nf-L by 5.9% (95% CI = 5.4-6.4). The longitudinal change in GFAP was higher among Black participants than among White participants (4.4% vs 3.5% per year, p = 0.028). Baseline MRI characteristics were associated with the longitudinal changes in serum biomarkers of clinical AD. Specifically, a higher baseline third ventricular volume was associated with a higher rate of increase in the concentration of t-tau, and white matter hyperintensities predicted a higher rate of increase in Nf-L. The rate of change in concentrations of t-tau, Nf-L, and GFAP was significantly higher among those who developed clinical AD than in those with no cognitive impairment. For each standard deviation unit decline in global cognition, longitudinal change in t-tau increased by 81% (95% CI = 76-86), Nf-L by 113% (95% CI = 105-120), and GFAP by 66% (95% CI = 62-70). DISCUSSION: Blood biomarkers showed significant longitudinal changes corresponding to cognitive decline, clinical AD, and structural MRI characteristics. Our findings show that longitudinal changes in serum biomarkers were associated with several cognitive endophenotypes. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: The study found Class II evidence that longitudinal changes in serum t-tau, Nf-L, and GFAP were associated with cognitive decline and the development of clinical AD in people older than 65 years.

A life course approach to understanding stress exposures and cognitive function among middle-aged and older adults.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have evaluated the stress-cognition association, but few have captured the cumulative nature of stress or distinguished the influences of stressors occurring in childhood versus adulthood. Using a lifecourse approach, we investigated whether cumulative stress exposures are associated with poorer cognitive function and faster cognitive decline. METHODS: We used data from the Midlife Development in the United States Study (N = 3,954, mean baseline age: 56 years). We fit marginal structural generalized estimating equations models to estimate the difference in baseline cognitive function per SD increment in the continuous stressor score, and, separately, between persons in each life course stressor profile and those who did not experience high stress in either childhood or adulthood. We also characterized differences in cognitive decline across levels of stress exposures. RESULTS: Higher cumulative stress exposure was associated with lower executive function (difference per SD in continuous stressor score = -0.12 SD units, 95% CI = -0.16, -0.08) and episodic memory (difference = -0.09 SD units, 95% CI = -0.13, -0.05). Baseline executive function and episodic memory were lower among those with high stress only in childhood, only in adulthood, and both, than among those without high stress in childhood or adulthood. There was little evidence that rate of change in executive function and episodic memory differed across levels of cumulative stress exposures. CONCLUSIONS: These findings offer support to the hypothesis that stress exposures, accumulated over the life course, worsen cognitive performance, but limited support for the hypothesis that these exposures promote cognitive decline.

In vivo quantification of strontium in bone among adults using portable x-ray fluorescence.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Bone strontium (Sr) is a reliable biomarker for studying related bone health outcomes and the effectiveness of Sr supplements in osteoporosis disease treatment. In this study, we evaluated the sensitivity of portable x-ray fluorescence (XRF) technology for in vivo bone Sr quantification among adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sr-doped bone-equivalent phantoms were used for system calibration. Using the portable XRF, we measured bone Sr levels in vivo in mid-tibia bone in 76 adults, 38-95 years of age, living in Indiana, US; we also analyzed bone data of 29 adults, 53-82 years of age, living in Shanghai, China. The same portable XRF device and system settings were used in measuring their mid-tibia bone. We compared bone Sr concentrations by sex, age, and recruitment site. We also used multiple linear regression model to estimate the association of age with bone Sr concentration, adjusting for sex and recruitment site. RESULTS: The uncertainty of in vivo individual measurement increased with higher soft tissue thickness overlying bone, and it ranged from 1.0 ug/g dry bone (ppm) to 2.4 ppm with thickness ranging from 2 to 7 mm, with a measurement time of 5 min. Geometric mean (95% confidence interval (CI)) of the bone Sr concentration was 79.1 (70.1, 89.3) ppm. After adjustment for recruitment site and sex, an increase in five years of age was associated with a 8.9% (95% CI: 2.5%, 15.6%) increase in geometric mean bone Sr concentration. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Sr concentrations were consistently well above detection limits of the portable XRF, and exhibited an expected increase with age. These data suggest that the portable XRF can be a valuable technology to quantify Sr concentration in bone, and in the study of Sr-related health outcomes among adults, such as bone mineral density (BMD) and bone fracture risk.

Relationship Between Level of American Football Playing and Diagnosis of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy in a Selection Bias Analysis.

Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disease associated with exposure to repetitive head impacts such as those from American football. Our understanding of this association is based on research in autopsied brains, since CTE can only be diagnosed postmortem. Such studies are susceptible to selection bias, which needs to be accounted for to ensure a generalizable estimate of the association between repetitive head impacts and CTE. We evaluated the relationship between level of American football playing and CTE diagnosis after adjusting for selection bias. The sample included 290 deceased male former American football players who donated their brains to the Veterans Affairs-Boston University-Concussion Legacy Foundation (VA-BU-CLF) Brain Bank between 2008 and 2019. After adjustment for selection bias, college-level and professional football players had 2.38 (95% simulation interval (SI): 1.16, 5.94) and 2.47 (95% SI: 1.46, 4.79) times the risk of being diagnosed with CTE as high-school-level players, respectively; these estimates are larger than estimates with no selection bias adjustment. Since CTE is currently diagnosed only postmortem, we additionally provide plausible scenarios for CTE risk ratios for each level of play during the former players' lifetime. This study provides further evidence to support a dose-response relationship between American football playing and CTE.

Association of Playing College American Football With Long-term Health Outcomes and Mortality.

Importance: Exposure to repetitive head impacts from playing American football (including impacts resulting in symptomatic concussions and subconcussive trauma) is associated with increased risk for later-life health problems, including cognitive and neuropsychiatric decline and neurodegenerative disease. Most research on long-term health consequences of playing football has focused on former professional athletes, with limited studies of former college players. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of self-reported health conditions among former college football players compared with a sample of men in the general population as well as standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) among former college football players. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included data from 447 former University of Notre Dame (ND) football players aged 59 to 75 years who were seniors on the rosters from 1964 to 1980. A health outcomes survey was distributed to living players and next of kin of deceased players for whom contact information was available. The survey was completed from December 2018 to May 2019. Exposure: Participation in football at ND. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of health outcomes was compared between living former players who completed the survey and propensity score-matched participants in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Standardized mortality ratios of all causes and specific causes of death among all former players were compared with those among men in the general US population. Results: A total of 216 living players completed the health survey (median age, 67 years; IQR, 63-70 years) and were compared with 638 participants in the HRS (median age, 66 years; IQR, 63-70 years). Former players reported a higher prevalence of cognitive impairment (10 [5%] vs 8 [1%]; P = .02), headaches (22 [10%] vs 22 [4%]; P = .001), cardiovascular disease (70 [33%] vs 128 [20%]; P = .001), hypercholesterolemia (111 [52%] vs 182 [29%]; P = .001), and alcohol use (185 [86%] vs 489 [77%]; P = .02) and a lower prevalence of diabetes (24 [11%] vs 146 [23%]; P = .001). All-cause mortality (SMR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.42-0.67) and mortality from heart (SMR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.39-0.99), circulatory (SMR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.03-0.83), respiratory (SMR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.00-0.70), and digestive system (SMR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.00-0.74) disorders; lung cancer (SMR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.05-0.77); and violence (SMR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.00-0.58) were significantly lower in the ND cohort than in the general population. Mortality from brain and other nervous system cancers was significantly higher in the ND cohort (SMR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.04-9.77). Whereas point estimates were greater for all neurodegenerative causes (SMR, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.29-4.18), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (SMR, 2.93; 95% CI, 0.36-10.59), and Parkinson disease (SMR, 2.07; 95% CI, 0.05-11.55), the difference did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of former college football players, both positive and negative health outcomes were observed. With more than 800 000 former college players living in the US, additional research appears to be needed to provide stakeholders with guidance to maximize factors that improve health outcomes and minimize factors that may increase risk for later-life morbidity and mortality.

Aduhelm, the Newly Approved Medication for Alzheimer Disease: What Epidemiologists Can Learn and What Epidemiology Can Offer.

Alzheimer disease (AD) is a progressive disorder common among older adults and culminating in profound cognitive impairments and high mortality risk. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently provided accelerated approval for Aduhelm, a medication for AD treatment. Aduhelm (Biogen Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts) has been described as the first disease-modifying treatment for AD but has not been demonstrated to improve patients' cognitive or functional outcomes. In this commentary, we describe why Aduhelm approval was controversial and aspects of the current evidence of special pertinence to epidemiologists. The FDA decision was based primarily on 2 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), both terminated early, with conflicting findings about the cognitive benefits of Aduhelm. Both RCTs showed important adverse effects of the medication. The FDA cited the documented reduction in brain amyloid, an AD biomarker hypothesized as a surrogate outcome, to justify accelerated approval. Despite lack of racial/ethnic diversity in the RCT participants, concerns about health disparities have been invoked to argue for public funding of this expensive medication. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services recently made a "Coverage with Evidence Development" determination for Aduhelm and similar medications. We end by describing how innovative study designs could accelerate postapproval research and evaluate the proposed surrogate outcomes.

Residential Green Space and Cognitive Function in a Large Cohort of Middle-Aged Women.

Importance: Green space can decelerate cognitive decline by supporting physical activity, psychological restoration, or reducing exposure to air pollution. However, existing studies on the association of green space with cognitive decline are limited. Objective: To examine whether residential green space was associated with cognitive function in middle-aged women. Design, Setting, and Participants: Starting in 1989, the Nurses' Health Study II enrolled 116 429 female nurses aged 25 to 42 years residing in the US. In 2014 to 2016, 40 082 women were invited to complete an online cognitive battery. This cohort study analyzed women who had data on both green space exposure and cognitive measures. Data analysis was conducted from June to October 2021. Exposures: Residential exposure to green space was assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, a satellite-derived indicator of the quantity of ground vegetation. Landsat satellite data at 270-m and 1230-m buffers around each participants' residential addresses in 2013 were used. Main Outcomes and Measures: In 2014 to 2016, cognitive function was measured using a self-administered online battery, the Cogstate Brief Battery, consisting of 4 tasks measuring psychomotor speed, attention, learning, and working memory; 3 composite scores, averaging together all tasks, psychomotor speed/attention, and learning/working memory, were created. In addition, the study evaluated potential mediators, including air pollution, depression, and physical activity. Results: The analytical sample included 13 594 women, of whom 13 293 (98%) were White. Mean (SD) age was 61.2 (4.6) years. In models adjusted for age at assessment, race, childhood, adulthood, and neighborhood socioeconomic status, green space was associated with higher scores on the global Cogstate composite (mean difference per IQR in green space, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.07), and psychomotor speed/attention (mean difference in score, 0.05 standard units; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.08). This difference in scores is similar to the difference observed in women 1 year apart in age in the data. By contrast, there was no association between green space and learning/working memory (mean difference, 0.0300; 95% CI, -0.0003 to 0.0500). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that increasing residential green space may be associated with modest benefits in cognition in middle-aged women.

Association between blood metals mixtures concentrations and cognitive performance, and effect modification by diet in older US adults.

BACKGROUND: Chronic exposure to heavy metals has been associated with adverse neurological outcomes in older adults. Inflammatory processes are suspected as an underlying pathway by which metals exert their neurotoxicity. In parallel, a diet rich in antioxidant and anti-inflammatory components may protect against chronic inflammation. OBJECTIVES: We examined the associations of blood concentrations of lead, cadmium, and manganese as a mixture with cognitive performance in older US adults and potential modification of these associations by diet as measured by the Healthy Eating Index 2015 (HEI-2015) and the Adapted Dietary Inflammatory Index (ADII). METHODS: We used data on 1,777 adults ≥60 years old from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; 2011-2014). We derived the ADII and the HEI-2015 from two nonconsecutive 24-hour diet recalls. Cognitive performance was measured by the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease (CERAD) Word Learning subtest, the animal fluency test, and the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST). We also constructed a composite z-score reflecting overall cognitive performance. We used quantile g-computation to evaluate the joint associations of a mixture of metals with cognitive performance test scores. We also evaluated effect modification by sex and diet quality indices using Cochran Q tests. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) of blood metals were 0.38 µg/L (0.35), 14.70 µg/L (11.70), and 8.74 µg/L (4.06) for cadmium, lead, and manganese, respectively. Increasing blood concentrations of all metals by one quartile was associated with a decrease in overall cognitive performance (-0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.09, 0.02), CERAD (-0.04; 95% CI = -0.12, 0.03), animal fluency (-0.02; 95% CI, -0.11, 0.06), and DSST (-0.05; 95% CI = -0.11, 0.02) test scores. These associations were more pronounced in adults with high pro-inflammatory or low-diet quality and null or positive though imprecise associations in participants with a high anti-inflammatory. These associations also varied by sex with inverse associations in men and positive associations in women. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that adherence to an antioxidant and anti-inflammatory diet may prevent blood metals adverse cognitive effects among older adults. If confirmed, strategies based on diet could provide a potential complementary and efficient approach to counteract effects of environmental pollutants.

Validation of in vivo toenail measurements of manganese and mercury using a portable X-ray fluorescence device.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Toenail metal concentrations can be used as an effective biomarker for exposure to environmental toxicants. Typically toenail clippings are measured ex vivo using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). X-ray fluorescence (XRF) toenail metal measurements done on intact toenails in vivo could be used as an alternative to alleviate some of the disadvantages of ICP-MS. In this study, we assessed the ability to use XRF to measure toenail metal concentrations in real-time without having to clip the toenails (i.e., in vivo) in two occupational settings for exposure assessment of manganese and mercury. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The portable XRF method used a 3-min in vivo measurement of toenails prior to clipping and was assessed against ICP-MS measurement of toenail clippings taken immediately after the XRF measurement and work history for a group of welders (n = 16) assessed for manganese exposure and nail salon workers (n = 10) assessed for mercury exposure. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We identified that in vivo XRF metal measurements were able to discern exposure to manganese in welders and mercury in nail salon workers. We identified significant positive correlations between ICP-MS of clippings and in vivo XRF measures of both toenail manganese (R = 0.59, p = 0.02) and mercury (R = 0.74, p < 0.001), as well as between in vivo XRF toenail manganese and work history among the welders (R = 0.55, p = 0.03). We identified in vivo XRF detection limits to be 0.5 µg/g for mercury and 2.6 µg/g for manganese. Further work should elucidate differences in the timing of exposure using the in vivo XRF method over toenail clippings and modification of measurement time and x-ray setting to further decrease the detection limit. In vivo portable, XRF measurements can be used to effectively measure toenail Mn and Hg in occupational participants in real-time during study visits and at a fraction of the cost.

Potential for Selection Bias in Studies of the Association of Hormonal Contraception and Chronic Vulvar Pain.

Background: Hormonal contraceptive use is common among reproductive-aged women, but research evaluating its etiological relationship to vulvodynia remains mixed. We sought to evaluate this association and examine the potential for bias due to care-seeking behavior. Materials and Methods: We conducted a case-control study of women recruited from a large health care network database from 2008 to 2011. Of 26,455 eligible respondents, 1168 met the case definition for chronic vulvar pain (CVP). We matched each case to three controls by age and used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for prior hormonal contraception (HC) use and CVP, stratifying cases by whether or not they sought care for their vulvar pain. We also simulated the influence of potential biases due to care seeking, using parameters based on this dataset. Results: HC users had higher odds of CVP (adjusted OR = 2.6, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2-3.2). Effect estimates were stronger when cases were restricted to care seekers (adjusted OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 2.2-3.7). Effect estimates decreased slightly as time increased between HC initiation and pain onset. Our simulations suggested that effect estimates may be spuriously strengthened when cases are restricted to care-seeking women, but controls are recruited from the general population. Conclusions: Our results suggest an association between antecedent HC use and CVP that is potentially spuriously strengthened in case-control studies when cases are restricted to care seekers but controls are not.

Racial Disparities in Cognitive Function Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults: The Roles of Cumulative Stress Exposures Across the Life Course.

BACKGROUND: Racial disparities in cognitive function are well documented, but factors driving these disparities remain underexplored. This study aims to quantify the extent to which cumulative stress exposures across the life course explain Black-White disparities in executive function and episodic memory in middle-aged and older adults. METHOD: Data were drawn from the 2004-2006 wave of the Midlife Development in the United States Study (MIDUS 2) and the MIDUS Refresher study (N = 5,947; 5,262 White and 685 Black). Cumulative stress exposures were assessed by 10 stressor domains (ie, childhood stress, stressful life events in adulthood, financial stress, work psychological stress, work physical stress, work-family conflicts, neighborhood disorder, relationship stress, perceived inequality, and perceived discrimination). Cognitive function was assessed using the Brief Test of Adult Cognition by Telephone. Marginal structural models were used to quantify the proportion of the effect of race/ethnicity status on cognitive function mediated through cumulative stress exposures. RESULTS: After adjusting for age, sex, and sample, on average, Black participants had lower levels of executive function (difference: -0.83 SD units, 95% CI: -0.91, -0.75) and episodic memory (difference: -0.53 SD units, 95% CI: -0.60, -0.45) scores than White participants. Cumulative stress exposures accounted for 8.4% of the disparity in executive function and 13.2% of the disparity in episodic memory. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative stress exposures across the life course explained modest proportions of Black-White disparities in cognitive function in this large cross-sectional study.

Longitudinal Relationship of Leisure Activity Engagement With Cognitive Performance Among Non-Demented, Community-Dwelling Older Adults.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Leisure activity engagement (LAE) may reduce the risk of incident dementia. However, cognitive performance may predict LAE change. We evaluated the temporal ordering of overall and subtypes of LAE (intellectual, physical, and social) and cognitive performance (global, language, memory, and visuospatial function) among non-demented older adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Washington Heights-Inwood Columbia Aging Project concurrently administered a survey measure of 13 leisure activities and a neuropsychological battery every 18-24 months for up to 14 years to 5,384 racially and ethnically diverse participants. We used parallel process conditional latent growth curve models to examine temporal ordering in the overall sample and within baseline diagnostic groups (mild cognitive impairment [MCI] vs. cognitively normal). RESULTS: Levels and changes of overall and subtypes of LAE were positively correlated with cognitive performance in the overall sample and within each diagnostic group. In the overall sample, higher initial memory was associated with slower declines in social LAE (estimate = 0.019, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.001-0.037). Among MCI, higher initial physical LAE was associated with slower declines in memory (estimate = 0.034, 95% CI: 0.001-0.067), but higher initial intellectual LAE was related to steeper declines in visuospatial function (estimate = -0.028, 95% CI: -0.052 to -0.004). Among cognitively normal, higher initial memory was associated with slower declines in intellectual LAE (estimate = 0.012, 95% CI: 0.002-0.022). DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Dynamic interplay of LAE with cognitive performance was observed across diagnostic groups. Levels of LAE subtypes could be more predictive of change in certain cognitive domains within older adults with MCI.

Incidence of and Mortality From Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in National Football League Athletes.

Importance: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease; understanding ALS risk factors is a critical public health issue. Objectives: To evaluate the incidence of and mortality from ALS in National Football League (NFL) athletes and to describe characteristics associated with ALS within this cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study included all 19 423 NFL athletes who debuted between 1960 and 2019 and played 1 or more professional game. It was conducted between October 3, 2020, and July 19, 2021. Exposure: Participation in the NFL, including playing 1 or more professional games. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases of ALS and death information were identified based on public records from NFL statistics aggregators, news reports, obituaries, and National Death Index results. The standardized incidence ratio and the standardized mortality ratio were calculated based on data acquired from surveillance studies of ALS accounting for age, sex, and race. Secondary analyses examined the association of body mass index, NFL career duration, race, birth location, and markers of fame, using a nested case-control design, matching athletes with ALS to athletes without ALS, by NFL debut year. Results: A total of 19 423 male former and current NFL players (age range, 23-78 years) were included in this cohort study and were followed up for a cumulative 493 168 years (mean [SD] follow-up, 30.6 [13.7] years). Thirty-eight players received a diagnosis of ALS, and 28 died during the study time frame, representing a significantly higher incidence of ALS diagnosis (standardized incidence ratio, 3.59; 95% CI, 2.58-4.93) and mortality (standardized mortality ratio, 3.94; 95% CI, 2.62-5.69) among NFL players compared with the US male population, adjusting for age and race. Among NFL athletes, nested-case-control analyses found that those who received a diagnosis of ALS had significantly longer careers (mean [SD] duration, 7.0 [3.9] years) than athletes without ALS (mean [SD] duration, 4.5 [3.6] years; odds ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). There were no differences in ALS status based on proxies of NFL fame, body mass index, position played, birth location, or race. Conclusions and Relevance: The age-, sex-, and race-adjusted incidence of and mortality from ALS among all NFL players who debuted between 1960 and 2019 were nearly 4 times as high as those of the general population. Athletes with a diagnosis of ALS had longer NFL careers than those without ALS, suggesting an association between NFL duration of play and ALS. The identification of these risk factors for ALS helps to inform the study of pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for this fatal neurodegenerative disease.